Decision making under uncertainty, with a special emphasis on geosciences and education
 Responsibility
 Laxman Bokati, Vladik Kreinovich.
 Imprint
 Cham, Switzerland : Springer, 2023.
 Physical description
 1 online resource (xi, 210 pages) : illustrations (black and white).
 Series
 Studies in systems, decision and control ; v. 218. 21984190
Online
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Description
Creators/Contributors
 Author/Creator
 Bokati, Laxman, 1989 author.
 Contributor
 Kreinovich, Vladik, author.
Contents/Summary
 Bibliography
 Includes bibliographical references and index.
 Contents

 Intro
 Contents
 Part I Introduction
 1 General Introduction
 2 (Rational) Individual Decision Making: Main Ideas
 References
 3 (Rational) Group Decision Making: General Formulas and a New Simplified Derivation of These Formulas
 3.1 (Rational) Group Decision Making: General Formulas
 3.2 A New (Simplified) Explanation of Nash's Bargaining Solution
 3.3 Taking Empathy into Account
 References
 4 How We Can Control Group Decision Making by Modifying the Proposed Options
 4.1 Formulation of the Problem
 4.2 Main Idea and the Resulting Explanation
 4.3 Proof of the Main Result
 References
 Part II How People Actually Make Decisions
 5 The Fact That We Can Only Have Approximate Estimates Explains Why Buying and Selling Prices are Different
 5.1 People's Actual Decisions Often Differ from What Decision Theory Recommends
 5.2 Buying and Selling Prices are Different: A Phenomenon and Its Current Quantitative Explanations
 5.3 A New (Hopefully, More Adequate) Quantitative Explanation
 References
 6 The ``No Trade Theorem'' Paradox
 6.1 ``No Trade Theorem'' and Why It is a Paradox
 6.2 Analysis of the Problem and the Resulting Explanation of the ``No Trade Theorem'' Paradox
 6.3 Auxiliary Result: Decision Theory Explains Why Depressed People are More RiskAverse
 References
 7 People Make Decisions Based on Clusters Containing Actual Values
 7.1 Formulation of the Problem
 7.2 A Possible Geometric Explanation
 7.3 Auxiliary Observation: How all This is Related to Our Understanding of Directions
 References
 8 When Revolutions Succeed
 8.1 Formulation of the Problem
 8.2 80/20 Rule: Reminder
 8.3 How These Two Laws Explain the 3.5% Rule
 References
 9 How People Combine Utility Values
 9.1 Common Sense Addition
 9.2 Towards Precise Formulation of the Problem
 9.3 Hurwicz OptimismPessimism Criterion: Reminder
 9.4 Analysis of the Problem and the Resulting Explanation of Common Sense Addition
 References
 10 Biased Perception of Time
 10.1 Formulation of the Problem
 10.2 How Decision Theory Can Explain the Telescoping Effect
 References
 11 Biased Perception of Future Time Leads to NonOptimal Decisions
 References
 12 People Have Biased Perception of Other People's Utility
 References
 13 People Select Approximately Optimal Alternatives
 13.1 People Use Softmax Instead of Optimization
 13.2 Problem: Need to Generalize Softmax to the Case of Interval Uncertainty
 13.3 How to Generalize: The Proposed Solution
 References
 14 People Make Decisions Using Heuristics. I
 14.1 Formulation of the Problem
 14.2 Case When We Only Know the Expected Rates of Return ...
 14.3 Case When We Only Know the Intervals Containing the Actual ...
 References
 15 People Make Decisions Using Heuristics. II
 15.1 Formulation of the Problem
 Summary
 This book describes new techniques for making decisions in situations with uncertainty and new applications of decisionmaking techniques. The main emphasis is on situations when it is difficult to decrease uncertainty. For example, it is very difficult to accurately predict human economic behavior, so in economics, it is very important to take this uncertainty into account when making decisions. Other areas where it is difficult to decrease uncertainty are geosciences and teaching. The book analyzes the general problem of decision making and shows how its results can be applied to economics, geosciences, and teaching. Since all these applications involve computing, the book also shows how these results can be applied to computing, including deep learning and quantum computing. The book is recommended to researchers, practitioners, and students who want to learn more about decision making under uncertaintyand who want to work on remaining challenges.
Subjects
Bibliographic information
 Publication date
 2023
 Series
 Studies in systems, decision and control Series, 21984190 ; volume 218
 Note
 15.2 Formal Explanation of the Anchoring Formula
 ISBN
 9783031260865
 3031260864
 3031260856
 9783031260858
 DOI
 10.1007/9783031260865