- Intro
- Contents
- Part I Introduction
- 1 General Introduction
- 2 (Rational) Individual Decision Making: Main Ideas
- References
- 3 (Rational) Group Decision Making: General Formulas and a New Simplified Derivation of These Formulas
- 3.1 (Rational) Group Decision Making: General Formulas
- 3.2 A New (Simplified) Explanation of Nash's Bargaining Solution
- 3.3 Taking Empathy into Account
- References
- 4 How We Can Control Group Decision Making by Modifying the Proposed Options
- 4.1 Formulation of the Problem
- 4.2 Main Idea and the Resulting Explanation
- 4.3 Proof of the Main Result
- References
- Part II How People Actually Make Decisions
- 5 The Fact That We Can Only Have Approximate Estimates Explains Why Buying and Selling Prices are Different
- 5.1 People's Actual Decisions Often Differ from What Decision Theory Recommends
- 5.2 Buying and Selling Prices are Different: A Phenomenon and Its Current Quantitative Explanations
- 5.3 A New (Hopefully, More Adequate) Quantitative Explanation
- References
- 6 The ``No Trade Theorem'' Paradox
- 6.1 ``No Trade Theorem'' and Why It is a Paradox
- 6.2 Analysis of the Problem and the Resulting Explanation of the ``No Trade Theorem'' Paradox
- 6.3 Auxiliary Result: Decision Theory Explains Why Depressed People are More Risk-Averse
- References
- 7 People Make Decisions Based on Clusters Containing Actual Values
- 7.1 Formulation of the Problem
- 7.2 A Possible Geometric Explanation
- 7.3 Auxiliary Observation: How all This is Related to Our Understanding of Directions
- References
- 8 When Revolutions Succeed
- 8.1 Formulation of the Problem
- 8.2 80/20 Rule: Reminder
- 8.3 How These Two Laws Explain the 3.5% Rule
- References
- 9 How People Combine Utility Values
- 9.1 Common Sense Addition
- 9.2 Towards Precise Formulation of the Problem
- 9.3 Hurwicz Optimism-Pessimism Criterion: Reminder
- 9.4 Analysis of the Problem and the Resulting Explanation of Common Sense Addition
- References
- 10 Biased Perception of Time
- 10.1 Formulation of the Problem
- 10.2 How Decision Theory Can Explain the Telescoping Effect
- References
- 11 Biased Perception of Future Time Leads to Non-Optimal Decisions
- References
- 12 People Have Biased Perception of Other People's Utility
- References
- 13 People Select Approximately Optimal Alternatives
- 13.1 People Use Softmax Instead of Optimization
- 13.2 Problem: Need to Generalize Softmax to the Case of Interval Uncertainty
- 13.3 How to Generalize: The Proposed Solution
- References
- 14 People Make Decisions Using Heuristics. I
- 14.1 Formulation of the Problem
- 14.2 Case When We Only Know the Expected Rates of Return ...
- 14.3 Case When We Only Know the Intervals Containing the Actual ...
- References
- 15 People Make Decisions Using Heuristics. II
- 15.1 Formulation of the Problem
This book describes new techniques for making decisions in situations with uncertainty and new applications of decision-making techniques. The main emphasis is on situations when it is difficult to decrease uncertainty. For example, it is very difficult to accurately predict human economic behavior, so in economics, it is very important to take this uncertainty into account when making decisions. Other areas where it is difficult to decrease uncertainty are geosciences and teaching. The book analyzes the general problem of decision making and shows how its results can be applied to economics, geosciences, and teaching. Since all these applications involve computing, the book also shows how these results can be applied to computing, including deep learning and quantum computing. The book is recommended to researchers, practitioners, and students who want to learn more about decision making under uncertaintyand who want to work on remaining challenges.