articles+ search results

Quantitative Biology - Quantitative Methods and Computer Science - Machine Learning

In an era of increasing pressure to achieve sustainable agriculture, the optimization of livestock feed for enhancing yield and minimizing environmental impact is a paramount objective. This study presents a pioneering approach towards this goal, using rumen microbiome data to predict the efficacy of feed additives in dairy cattle. We collected an extensive dataset that includes methane emissions from 2,190 Holstein cows distributed across 34 distinct sites. The cows were divided into control and experimental groups in a double-blind, unbiased manner, accounting for variables such as age, days in lactation, and average milk yield. The experimental groups were administered one of four leading commercial feed additives: Agolin, Kexxtone, Allimax, and Relyon. Methane emissions were measured individually both before the administration of additives and over a subsequent 12-week period. To develop our predictive model for additive efficacy, rumen microbiome samples were collected from 510 cows from the same herds prior to the study's onset. These samples underwent deep metagenomic shotgun sequencing, yielding an average of 15.7 million reads per sample. Utilizing innovative artificial intelligence techniques we successfully estimated the efficacy of these feed additives across different farms. The model's robustness was further confirmed through validation with independent cohorts, affirming its generalizability and reliability. Our results underscore the transformative capability of using targeted feed additive strategies to both optimize dairy yield and milk composition, and to significantly reduce methane emissions. Specifically, our predictive model demonstrates a scenario where its application could guide the assignment of additives to farms where they are most effective. In doing so, we could achieve an average potential reduction of over 27\% in overall emissions.
Comment: 51 pages, 24 figures, 11 tables, 93 references

Computer Science - Social and Information Networks

Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain-based technologies are disrupting all markets. While the potential of such technologies remains to be seen, there is a current need to understand emergent patterns of user behavior and token adoption in order to design future products. In this paper we analyze the social dynamics taking place during one arbitrary day on the ERC20 platform. We characterize the network of token transactions among agents. We show heterogeneous profiles of user behavior, portfolio diversity, and token adoption. While most users are specialized in transacting with a few tokens, those that have diverse portfolios are bridging across large parts of the network and may jeopardize the system stability. We believe this work to be a foundation for unveiling the usage dynamics of crypto-currencies networks.
Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures

Physics - Physics and Society and Computer Science - Social and Information Networks

Following the birth of Bitcoin and the introduction of the Ethereum ERC20 protocol a decade ago, recent years have witnessed a growing number of cryptographic tokens that are being introduced by researchers, private sector companies and NGOs. The ubiquitous of such Blockchain based cryptocurrencies give birth to a new kind of rising economy, which presents great difficulties to modeling its dynamics using conventional semantic properties. Our work presents the analysis of the dynamical properties of the ERC20 protocol compliant crypto-coins' trading data using a network theory prism. We examine the dynamics of ERC20 based networks over time by analyzing a meta-parameter of the network, the power of its degree distribution. Our analysis demonstrates that this parameter can be modeled as an under-damped harmonic oscillator over time, enabling a year forward of network parameters predictions.

Computer Science - Social and Information Networks

The Ethereum blockchain network is a decentralized platform enabling smart contract execution and transactions of Ether (ETH) [1], its designated cryptocurrency. Ethereum is the second most popular cryptocurrency with a market cap of more than 100 billion USD, with hundreds of thousands of transactions executed daily by hundreds of thousands of unique wallets. Tens of thousands of those wallets are newly generated each day. The Ethereum platform enables anyone to freely open multiple new wallets [2] free of charge (resulting in a large number of wallets that are controlled by the same entities). This attribute makes the Ethereum network a breeding space for activity by software robots (bots). The existence of bots is widespread in different digital technologies and there are various approaches to detect their activity such as rule-base, clustering, machine learning and more [3,4]. In this work we demonstrate how bot detection can be implemented using a network theory approach.

Computer Science - Social and Information Networks and Computer Science - Cryptography and Security

Blockchain technology, which has been known by mostly small technological circles up until recently, is bursting throughout the globe, with a potential economic and social impact that could fundamentally alter traditional financial and social structures. Issuing cryptocurrencies on top of the Blockchain system by startups and private sector companies is becoming a ubiquitous phenomenon, inducing the trading of these crypto-coins among their holders using dedicated exchanges. Apart from being a trading ledger for tokens, Blockchain can also be observed as a social network. Analyzing and modeling the dynamics of the "social signals" of this network can contribute to our understanding of this ecosystem and the forces acting within in. This work is the first analysis of the network properties of the ERC20 protocol compliant crypto-coins' trading data. Considering all trading wallets as a network's nodes, and constructing its edges using buy--sell trades, we can analyze the network properties of the ERC20 network. Examining several periods of time, and several data aggregation variants, we demonstrate that the network displays strong power-law properties. These results coincide with current network theory expectations, however nonetheless, are the first scientific validation of it, for the ERC20 trading data. The data we examined is composed of over 30 million ERC20 tokens trades, performed by over 6.8 million unique wallets, lapsing over a two years period between February 2016 and February 2018.

Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence

Current state of the art in the field of UAV activation relies solely on human operators for the design and adaptation of the drones' flying routes. Furthermore, this is being done today on an individual level (one vehicle per operators), with some exceptions of a handful of new systems, that are comprised of a small number of self-organizing swarms, manually guided by a human operator. Drones-based monitoring is of great importance in variety of civilian domains, such as road safety, homeland security, and even environmental control. In its military aspect, efficiently detecting evading targets by a fleet of unmanned drones has an ever increasing impact on the ability of modern armies to engage in warfare. The latter is true both traditional symmetric conflicts among armies as well as asymmetric ones. Be it a speeding driver, a polluting trailer or a covert convoy, the basic challenge remains the same -- how can its detection probability be maximized using as little number of drones as possible. In this work we propose a novel approach for the optimization of large scale swarms of reconnaissance drones -- capable of producing on-demand optimal coverage strategies for any given search scenario. Given an estimation cost of the threat's potential damages, as well as types of monitoring drones available and their comparative performance, our proposed method generates an analytically provable strategy, stating the optimal number and types of drones to be deployed, in order to cost-efficiently monitor a pre-defined region for targets maneuvering using a given roads networks. We demonstrate our model using a unique dataset of the Israeli transportation network, on which different deployment schemes for drones deployment are evaluated.
Comment: 35 pages, 19 figures

Computer Science - Computers and Society, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Computer Science and Game Theory, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks, and Physics - Physics and Society

Collective intelligence is believed to underly the remarkable success of human society. The formation of accurate shared beliefs is one of the key components of human collective intelligence. How are accurate shared beliefs formed in groups of fallible individuals? Answering this question requires a multiscale analysis. We must understand both the individual decision mechanisms people use, and the properties and dynamics of those mechanisms in the aggregate. As of yet, mathematical tools for such an approach have been lacking. To address this gap, we introduce a new analytical framework: We propose that groups arrive at accurate shared beliefs via distributed Bayesian inference. Distributed inference occurs through information processing at the individual level, and yields rational belief formation at the group level. We instantiate this framework in a new model of human social decision-making, which we validate using a dataset we collected of over 50,000 users of an online social trading platform where investors mimic each others' trades using real money in foreign exchange and other asset markets. We find that in this setting people use a decision mechanism in which popularity is treated as a prior distribution for which decisions are best to make. This mechanism is boundedly rational at the individual level, but we prove that in the aggregate implements a type of approximate "Thompson sampling"---a well-known and highly effective single-agent Bayesian machine learning algorithm for sequential decision-making. The perspective of distributed Bayesian inference therefore reveals how collective rationality emerges from the boundedly rational decision mechanisms people use.

Quantitative Finance - Trading and Market Microstructure

Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called "loss aversion". Despite of the fact that prospect theory has been well developed in behavioral economics at the theoretical level, there exist very few large-scale empirical studies and most of them have been undertaken with micro-panel data. Here we analyze over 28.5 million trades made by 81.3 thousand traders of an online financial trading community over 28 months, aiming to explore the large-scale empirical aspect of prospect theory. By analyzing and comparing the behavior of winning and losing trades and traders, we find clear evidence of the loss aversion phenomenon, an essence in prospect theory. This work hence demonstrates an unprecedented large-scale empirical evidence of prospect theory, which has immediate implication in financial trading, e.g., developing new trading strategies by minimizing the effect of loss aversion. Moreover, we introduce three risk-adjusted metrics inspired by prospect theory to differentiate winning and losing traders based on their historical trading behavior. This offers us potential opportunities to augment online social trading, where traders are allowed to watch and follow the trading activities of others, by predicting potential winners statistically based on their historical trading behavior rather than their trading performance at any given point in time.
Comment: 23 pages, 4 figures. *: These authors contributed equally to this work

Computer Science - Multiagent Systems

In this paper we study the strengths and limitations of collaborative teams of simple agents. In particular, we discuss the efficient use of "ant robots" for covering a connected region on the $Z^{2}$ grid, whose area is unknown in advance and which expands stochastically. Specifically, we discuss the problem where an initial connected region of $S_0$ boundary tiles expand outward with probability $p$ at every time step. On this grid region a group of $k$ limited and simple agents operate, in order to clean the unmapped and dynamically expanding region. A preliminary version of this problem was discussed in [1],[2] involving a deterministic expansion of a region in the grid.In this work we extend the model and examine cases where the spread of the region is done stochastically, where each tile has some probability $p$ to expand, at every time step. For this extended model we obtain an analytic probabilistic lower bounds for the minimal number of agents and minimal time required to enable a collaborative coverage of the expanding region, regardless of the algorithm used and the robots' hardware and software specifications. In addition, we present an impossibility result, for a variety of regions that would be impossible to completely clean, regardless of the algorithm used. Finally, we validate the analytic bounds using extensive empirical computer simulation results.

Computer Science - Social and Information Networks

Mobile phones are quickly becoming the primary source for social, behavioral, and environmental sensing and data collection. Today's smartphones are equipped with increasingly more sensors and accessible data types that enable the collection of literally dozens of signals related to the phone, its user, and its environment. A great deal of research effort in academia and industry is put into mining this raw data for higher level sense-making, such as understanding user context, inferring social networks, learning individual features, predicting outcomes, and so on. In this work we investigate the properties of learning and inference of real world data collected via mobile phones over time. In particular, we look at the dynamic learning process over time, and how the ability to predict individual parameters and social links is incrementally enhanced with the accumulation of additional data. To do this, we use the Friends and Family dataset, which contains rich data signals gathered from the smartphones of 140 adult members of a young-family residential community for over a year, and is one of the most comprehensive mobile phone datasets gathered in academia to date. We develop several models that predict social and individual properties from sensed mobile phone data, including detection of life-partners, ethnicity, and whether a person is a student or not. Then, for this set of diverse learning tasks, we investigate how the prediction accuracy evolves over time, as new data is collected. Finally, based on gained insights, we propose a method for advance prediction of the maximal learning accuracy possible for the learning task at hand, based on an initial set of measurements. This has practical implications, like informing the design of mobile data collection campaigns, or evaluating analysis strategies.
Comment: 10 pages

Computer Science - Social and Information Networks and Physics - Physics and Society

The importance of the ability of predict trends in social media has been growing rapidly in the past few years with the growing dominance of social media in our everyday's life. Whereas many works focus on the detection of anomalies in networks, there exist little theoretical work on the prediction of the likelihood of anomalous network pattern to globally spread and become "trends". In this work we present an analytic model the social diffusion dynamics of spreading network patterns. Our proposed method is based on information diffusion models, and is capable of predicting future trends based on the analysis of past social interactions between the community's members. We present an analytic lower bound for the probability that emerging trends would successful spread through the network. We demonstrate our model using two comprehensive social datasets - the "Friends and Family" experiment that was held in MIT for over a year, where the complete activity of 140 users was analyzed, and a financial dataset containing the complete activities of over 1.5 million members of the "eToro" social trading community.
Comment: 6 Pages + Appendix

Computer Science - Computational Geometry

In this paper we consider an isoperimetric inequality for the "free perimeter" of a planar shape inside a rectangular domain, the free perimeter being the length of the shape boundary that does not touch the border of the domain.

Computer Science - Multiagent Systems

In this paper we study the strengths and limitations of collaborative teams of simple agents. In particular, we discuss the efficient use of "ant robots" for covering a connected region on the Z^{2} grid, whose area is unknown in advance, and which expands at a given rate, where $n$ is the initial size of the connected region. We show that regardless of the algorithm used, and the robots' hardware and software specifications, the minimal number of robots required in order for such coverage to be possible is \Omega({\sqrt{n}}). In addition, we show that when the region expands at a sufficiently slow rate, a team of \Theta(\sqrt{n}) robots could cover it in at most O(n^{2} \ln n) time. This completion time can even be achieved by myopic robots, with no ability to directly communicate with each other, and where each robot is equipped with a memory of size O(1) bits w.r.t the size of the region (therefore, the robots cannot maintain maps of the terrain, nor plan complete paths). Regarding the coverage of non-expanding regions in the grid, we improve the current best known result of O(n^{2}) by demonstrating an algorithm that guarantees such a coverage with completion time of O(\frac{1}{k} n^{1.5} + n) in the worst case, and faster for shapes of perimeter length which is shorter than O(n).

Computer Science - Social and Information Networks and Physics - Physics and Society

In this paper we discuss the threat of malware targeted at extracting information about the relationships in a real-world social network as well as characteristic information about the individuals in the network, which we dub Stealing Reality. We present Stealing Reality, explain why it differs from traditional types of network attacks, and discuss why its impact is significantly more dangerous than that of other attacks. We also present our initial analysis and results regarding the form that an SR attack might take, with the goal of promoting the discussion of defending against such an attack, or even just detecting the fact that one has already occurred.
Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures